The Fantasy Economist | World Cup Fantasy Helper

Interactive Tools Need JavaScript

This page uses JavaScript to load the current dataset, build Squad Builder Starter cards, rank captain options, and power the Team Builder.

You can still read the Stats Notes below, but player recommendations and squad tools are available only when JavaScript is enabled.

Squad Builder Starter

Start with a curated pack of top projection, core, high-floor, upside, value, budget, and differential ideas, then complete the squad around budget, position limits, and country limits.

Position

Captain Watchlist Interactive shortlist

Enable JavaScript to see captain options from the current fantasy dataset.

Starter Ideas Player cards

Enable JavaScript to compare a curated pack of projection, core, value, and differential picks.

Team Builder Interactive squad tool

Enable JavaScript to lock players, choose a tactic, and build a fantasy squad.

Team Builder No players locked yet

Add players from starter cards, then build a squad around them.

Open Team Builder

Captain Watchlist

Simple captain options for comparing strong armband choices.

Captain planning. Use these cards to compare captain options by projected points, matchup, start chance, and downside.

Captain Switch Check

Manual switch check for one current captain score against one possible new captain.

Manual Enter current captain points and one possible new captain, then run the check.

How to use this check

Choose the matchday and enter your current captain's points before the captain double.
Pick one possible new captain who is in your squad and has not played yet.

Country Position Current captain Current captain points Use points before the captain double.

Country Position Possible new captain Strategy

Matchday

Enter current captain points and a possible new captain.

The possible new captain should be in your squad and still unplayed in the selected matchday.

Bench Switch Check

Manual quick check for one current starter score against one possible substitute.

Manual Enter current starter points and one possible substitute, then run the check.

How to use this check

Choose the matchday and enter the starter's points after that player has played.
Pick one possible substitute who is in your squad and has not played yet.

Country Position Current starter Current starter points Use the starter's actual fantasy score.

Country Position Possible substitute Strategy

Matchday

Enter current starter points and one possible substitute.

The substitute should be in your squad and still unplayed in the selected matchday.

Pick Explorer

Compare player ideas by strategy, position, and matchday.

Pick cards show Matchday 1 projected points by default while ranking candidates by the selected matchday view.

Advanced rankings table

Player	Country	Position	Price	Strategy Score	Projected Pts / Matchday	Risk	Finance	Reason
Enable JavaScript to see player advice by style, position, projected points, finance, and downside context.

Score Prediction

Fixture-specific projected xG, scoreline, win/draw/win, clean-sheet, and uncertainty context from the score model.

Fixture	Projected xG	Win / Draw / Win	Most Likely Score	Match Uncertainty	Clean-Sheet Context
Enable JavaScript to see score predictions.

Team Builder

Guided squad builder for locking players, building a team, checking risk, and saving your squad.

Team Builder check: Use the builder as planning help, then confirm squad legality, locks, and deadlines inside the fantasy game.

1Choose strategyStart here
2Lock or avoid playersOptional
3Build squadNext action
4Review legality and riskAfter build
5Save or exportFinish

Choose Strategy

Balanced Squad is the default. Change squad strategy, formation, or matchday view before building.

Strategy Choose the squad-building approach. Strategy weights rank legal squads differently. Formation Matchday View Use Full Group Stage for balance, or one matchday for opponent-specific squad planning.

Model notes for this strategy

Lock or Avoid Players

Search for must-haves here, or add players from Squad Builder Starter. You can avoid players after a squad is built.

No players locked No avoided players

Fantasy squad rules are loaded for planning.

Search players

Build Squad

Click Build My Squad to fill 15 players from your strategy, locks, budget, and rules.

Squad Field

Build a squad to fill the pitch and bench from the selected strategy.

Build a full squad first, then click a starter and a bench player to swap them.

Lock a few players first, then click "Build My Squad" to optimize the squad.

Review Legality and Checks

Build a squad to check budget, country limits, lineup shape, and risk.

Tactic Rules loading

Total Price 0.0 units

Remaining Budget 0.0 units

Average Risk 0

Squad Size 0 / 0

Rule Checks

Build a squad to check budget, squad size, and country limits.

Squad Risk Report

Build a squad to see portfolio health, bad-week floor, and fixture stack risk.

Waiting

Advanced: Compare Team Builder Strategies

Strategy Comparison Check

Compare the five Team Builder strategies using the same current builder settings, filters, locks, removed players, tactic, matchday view, and risk controls.

Not run yet.

Save or Export

Your squad stays local. Save it in this browser for Decision Tools, or export JSON for backup.

Load JSON

Browser save is empty. Build a full squad, then save it here for quick Decision Tools access.

World Cup Fixtures

See the tournament groups, tournament structure, and bracket shell on the World Cup page. Homepage picks now include matchday opponent adjustments.

48 teams

12 groups

Jun 11-Jul 19 2026 tournament window

View Groups and Fixtures

Stats Notes

Simple explanations for the scores and labels shown on the public tools.

These notes explain the public labels used in Squad Builder Starter, Captain Watchlist, Team Builder, the switch checks, and Score Prediction.

Price: the player cost used by the squad builder and player cards.

Projected Points / Matchday: estimated fantasy points for one matchday, adjusted for role, expected minutes, matchup, and risk.

Captain Score: a captain shortlist score using projected points, matchup, start chance, upside, and downside risk.

Start %: estimated chance the player starts in the selected matchday view.

Expected Minutes: estimated playing time for the selected matchday view.

Reliability: a 0 to 100 role-and-minutes steadiness score. Higher is steadier.

Risk: a 0 to 100 downside score using role, minutes, volatility, fixture difficulty, and bad-week exposure. Lower is safer.

Pick Strategy Score: the ranking score for the selected player-pick view: Projected Points, Core Picks, High-Floor Picks, Upside Picks, Value Picks, or Differential Picks.

Team Builder Strategy: the squad-building approach: Balanced Squad, Diversified Squad, Concentrated Upside, Stars and Scrubs, or Value Squad.

Team Builder cards: show price, the selected card metric, country, club, role notes, and the selected matchday opponent when available.

Squad Risk Report: summarizes portfolio health, projected points, start chance, minutes, bad-week floor, squad risk, country stack risk, fixture stack risk, and budget pressure.

Switch checks: compare actual points already earned with a possible captain or bench option still to play.

Score Prediction: shows fixture-specific projected xG, win/draw/win, likely scoreline, match uncertainty, and clean-sheet context.

Projected Points

Projected points estimate how many fantasy points a player is expected to score in one matchday. The number blends role, expected minutes, attacking or defensive opportunity, matchup, and downside risk.

Player role: likely starters and high-minute players receive more credit than players with uncertain playing time.

Matchup: fixture difficulty changes the projection for attackers, defenders, and clean-sheet candidates.

Risk adjustment: downside risk can pull the public projection below a player's pure upside.

Captain comparison: Captain Watchlist shows projected points for comparison. It does not double the points for captain scoring.

Risk Measures

Risk measures help show whether a player or squad is steady, fragile, expensive, fixture-heavy, or exposed to a bad matchday.

Reliability: role and minutes steadiness. Higher is better.

Substitution Risk: chance of limited minutes, bench role, or early substitution. Lower is better.

Squad Risk: average downside exposure across the squad.

Portfolio Health: a steadiness label for the squad. Higher is steadier.

Bad-Week Floor: what a weaker matchday could look like for the starting XI.

Worst-Case Floor: a deeper downside view for the starting XI.

Country Stack Risk: too many players from one country can make the squad more fragile.

Fixture Stack Risk: too many starters with hard fixtures in the same matchday can lower the squad floor.

Budget Pressure: premium-heavy squads can force weak bench spots or low-minute players.

Risk-Adjusted Scores

Risk-adjusted scores rank players by combining projected output with the kind of risk a strategy is willing to accept.

Projected Points: favors the highest expected fantasy return.

Core Picks: balances projected return with reliable starts and minutes.

High-Floor Picks: prioritizes safer minutes and lower downside.

Upside Picks: chases higher ceilings in stronger attacking spots.

Value Picks: looks for strong return for the price.

Differential Picks: finds less obvious picks that still project well.

Advanced pick views: extra value and safety lenses stay out of the normal public pick list.

Captain Watchlist: is a separate captain-planning lane, not a normal public pick model.

Team Builder Strategies

Team Builder strategies describe the kind of 15-player squad to build. They combine player projections with the current budget, position, country-limit, lock, avoid, and squad-risk checks. The advanced comparison check can run all five strategies under the same settings and flag squads that look too similar.

Balanced Squad: strong all-around squad with starters, bench depth, budget efficiency, and moderate diversification.

Diversified Squad: reduces dependence on one country, one match, or a small group of stars.

Concentrated Upside: leans into strong attacking fixtures and higher-ceiling stacks.

Stars and Scrubs: spends heavily on elite starters and accepts a cheaper bench.

Value Squad: builds the deepest squad for the budget.

Captain And Bench Checks

The switch checks are simple comparison tools. They do not make the final decision for you; they show whether the possible new player has enough projected edge to justify a switch.

Current points: the points already earned by your current captain or starter.

Possible new player: the captain or bench option you are comparing against the current score.

Switch score: the selected strategy's comparison score for the possible new player.

Projection / floor: headline projection plus a lower-outcome view for the possible new player.

Fixture: opponent, start chance, and expected minutes for the selected matchday.

Score Prediction

Score Prediction gives fixture context for fantasy decisions. It is meant for comparing match environments, not for exact-score certainty.

Projected xG: expected goals for each team in this exact matchup.

Win / Draw / Win: compact match result probabilities from the scoreline grid.

Most Likely Score: the highest-probability scoreline, with total goals range kept as supporting detail.

Match Uncertainty: whether the fixture has a clearer or more fragile score path.

Clean-Sheet Context: how each team's defensive outlook looks in the fixture.

Small-Sample Correction: Confidence Adjustment

This protects the builder from overrating a player who played very little but had one big moment. Instead of trusting every raw per-90 number equally, we blend the player's raw rate with the average rate for their position.

Raw points per 90: total performance estimate divided by 90s played.

Position baseline: average raw points per 90 for players in the same position.

Confidence weight: 90s / (90s + 8). A player with more minutes gets a weight closer to 1. A player with very few minutes gets pulled closer to the position average.

Sample confidence score: confidence weight x 100. This is the 0 to 100 version used inside Reliability.

Confidence-adjusted per 90: confidence_weight x player_raw_per90 + (1 - confidence_weight) x position_average_per90.

Confidence-adjusted expected points: confidence-adjusted per 90 multiplied by the player's average minutes per appearance divided by 90.

Example: Raw points per 90 with 60 minutes played

If a player has a total performance estimate of 6 points from 60 minutes, then 90s played = 60 / 90 = 0.67. Raw points per 90 = 6 / 0.67 = 9.0. This looks excellent, but it is based on a tiny sample.

Example: Position baseline

If defenders in the database have raw points per 90 of [3.8, 4.2, 5.0, 5.4], the defender baseline = (3.8 + 4.2 + 5.0 + 5.4) / 4 = 4.6.

Example: Confidence weight

If a player has played 0.67 full-match equivalents, confidence weight = 0.67 / (0.67 + 8) = 0.08. The model trusts only 8% of the player's raw rate and leans heavily on the position baseline.

Example: Sample confidence score

If confidence weight = 0.08, sample confidence score = 0.08 x 100 = 8. If confidence weight = 0.79, sample confidence score = 79.

Example: Confidence-adjusted per 90

Using raw per 90 = 9.0, position baseline = 4.6, and confidence weight = 0.08, confidence-adjusted per 90 = 0.08 x 9.0 + 0.92 x 4.6 = 4.95.

Example: Confidence-adjusted expected points

If confidence-adjusted per 90 = 4.95 and the player usually plays 60 minutes, expected points per appearance = 4.95 x (60 / 90) = 3.3.

Example: why the correction matters

Player A has a raw score of 10 points per 90, but only played 2 full-match equivalents. The position average is 5. Confidence weight = 2 / (2 + 8) = 0.20. Confidence-adjusted per 90 = 0.20 x 10 + 0.80 x 5 = 6.0. The player still gets credit, but not full credit for a tiny sample.

Example: a larger sample gets trusted more

Player B also has a raw score of 10 points per 90, but played 30 full-match equivalents. Confidence weight = 30 / (30 + 8) = 0.79. Confidence-adjusted per 90 = 0.79 x 10 + 0.21 x 5 = 8.95. Because the sample is much larger, the estimate stays closer to the player's own rate.

Risk Measures

Risk fields use weekly fantasy point history, player status, chance of playing, minutes, starts, appearances, cards, and the player's bad-week pattern. Missed penalties are counted in performance scoring, but not in discipline risk.

Volatility: standard deviation of weekly fantasy points. It measures how much the player moves around their own average.

Downside deviation: downside-only movement below a 2-point target. Note: this is not directly comparable to volatility because good weeks are ignored and only bad shortfalls count.

Bad-week rate: share of weeks with 1 point or fewer.

Value at Risk 10: rough 10th percentile weekly score.

Conditional Value at Risk 20: average of the worst 20% of weekly scores.

Availability risk: an index from 0 to 100. It uses status penalty + (100 - chance of playing) x 0.5 + missed-game share x 35.

Minutes risk: start rate, 60-minute rate, and average minutes per appearance.

Discipline risk: yellow cards per 90 and red cards per 90. Penalties committed would fit here, but the current source data does not include them.

Tail risk: a weighted bad-week index: bad-week rate has weight 55, Value at Risk shortfall has weight 12, and Conditional Value at Risk shortfall has weight 10.

Composite risk: availability 28%, minutes 24%, discipline 12%, volatility 20%, tail risk 16%.

Example: volatility

If a player scores [2, 3, 4, 5], their weeks are steady. If another player scores [0, 0, 8, 10], their average may look useful, but the standard deviation is much higher.

Example: downside deviation

Use a target of 2 points. For weekly points [8, 2, 1, 0], the downside shortfalls are [0, 0, 1, 2]. Downside deviation is sqrt((0^2 + 0^2 + 1^2 + 2^2) / 4) = 1.12. This should not be compared one-to-one with volatility because the 8-point good week counts as zero downside.

Example: bad-week rate

For weekly points [0, 1, 2, 4, 8], bad-week rate is 2 / 5 = 40% because two weeks are 1 point or lower.

Example: Value at Risk 10

For sorted weekly points [0, 1, 2, 4, 8], the 10th percentile is close to the low end of the distribution. It answers: "What does a pretty bad week look like for this player?"

Example: Conditional Value at Risk 20

For weekly points [0, 1, 2, 4, 8], the worst 20% is the single worst week, so CVaR 20 = 0. With 10 weeks, it would average the worst 2 weeks.

Example: availability risk

Status penalty is based on the source status field: available = 0, doubtful = 25, injured/suspended = 40, unavailable = 45, and not available = 35. If a player has a doubtful status penalty of 25, a 75% chance of playing, and missed 20% of gameweeks, availability risk = 25 + (100 - 75) x 0.5 + 0.20 x 35 = 44.5, rounded to 45.

Example: minutes risk

If start rate = 70%, 60-minute rate = 60%, and average minutes = 65, minutes risk = (1 - 0.70) x 45 + (1 - 0.60) x 30 + (75 - 65) x 0.7 = 32.5, rounded to 33.

Example: discipline risk

If yellow cards per 90 = 0.25 and red cards per 90 = 0.02, discipline risk = 0.25 x 14 + 0.02 x 45 = 4.4, rounded to 4. Missed penalties are not included here because they are finishing events, not discipline events.

Example: tail risk

If bad-week rate = 30%, Value at Risk 10 = 0, and CVaR 20 = 0.5, tail risk = 0.30 x 55 + (2 - 0) x 12 + (2 - 0.5) x 10 = 55.5, rounded to 56. This intentionally gives the most weight to how often a player has very bad weeks.

Example: composite risk

If availability risk = 20, minutes risk = 30, discipline risk = 10, volatility risk = 40, and tail risk = 25, then composite risk = 20 x 0.28 + 30 x 0.24 + 10 x 0.12 + 40 x 0.20 + 25 x 0.16 = 26.0.

Risk-Adjusted Scores Used By The Builder

Reliability score: sample confidence score 45%, low availability risk 30%, and low minutes risk 25%.

Risk-adjusted expected points: confidence-adjusted expected points reduced when composite risk is high: points x (1 - risk / 150).

Risk-Adjusted Pick (Sharpe-style): balances projected points against overall risk. Raw ratio = (expected points - 2) / weekly point volatility, then converted to a 0 to 100 index by percentile rank in the player database.

Downside Protection Pick (Sortino-style): focuses more on avoiding bad outcomes. Raw ratio = (expected points - 2) / downside deviation, then converted to a 0 to 100 index by percentile rank in the player database.

Best Overall score: combines risk-adjusted expected points, reliability, and lower composite risk into a 0 to 100 score.

Example: reliability

If sample confidence score = 80, availability risk = 20, and minutes risk = 30, reliability = 80 x 0.45 + (100 - 20) x 0.30 + (100 - 30) x 0.25 = 77.5.

Example: risk-adjusted expected points

If confidence-adjusted expected points = 5.0 and composite risk = 30, risk-adjusted expected points = 5.0 x (1 - 30 / 150) = 4.0.

Example: Risk-Adjusted Pick (Sharpe-style)

If expected points = 5, baseline = 2, and weekly volatility = 3, raw Sharpe-style ratio = (5 - 2) / 3 = 1.0. If that raw ratio ranks around the 75th percentile among players, the displayed Risk-Adjusted Pick index is about 75.

Example: Downside Protection Pick (Sortino-style)

If expected points = 5, baseline = 2, and downside deviation = 1.5, raw Sortino-style ratio = (5 - 2) / 1.5 = 2.0. If that raw ratio ranks around the 85th percentile among players, the displayed Downside Protection Pick index is about 85.

Example: Best Overall score

Best Overall gives most weight to risk-adjusted expected points, then adds reliability, then rewards lower composite risk. This is the default team-builder score because it avoids choosing only upside players or only low-risk players.

Stats Shown On This Page

These labels appear in the dashboard, captain table, team advice table, lock-player list, and team builder cards. They are listed here at the end because they combine the source fields and calculated fields above.

Price: public pick cards and current Team Builder paths use official World Cup fantasy prices when available. Older exports may still contain estimated-price fields for compatibility.

Captain Score: a captain shortlist score using expected return, risk-adjusted return, reliability, composite risk, and tail risk.

Reliability: a 0 to 100 minutes-security score from club minutes, starts, national-team usage, source confidence, and availability-style risk.

Start %: modeled probability that the player starts for his country in the selected matchday view.

Expected Minutes: modeled minutes estimate using national-team usage first, then club usage, roster status, captain signal, and country position depth.

Substitution Risk: a 0 to 100 risk score for limited minutes, bench role, or early substitution. Lower is better.

Per 90: modeled fantasy upside if the player played a full 90 minutes.

Risk: a composite score from source risk, minutes uncertainty, volatility, downside risk, fixture risk, discipline, and bad-week probability. Lower is better.

Pick Strategy Score: the score for the selected public pick view: Projected Points, Core Picks, High-Floor Picks, Upside Picks, Value Picks, or Differential Picks.

Projected Pts / Matchday: risk-adjusted expected fantasy points for one matchday. Pick cards highlight Matchday 1 unless you choose a specific matchday view.

Advanced Bad-Week Floor Fields: deeper downside floor measures used by Model Notes and exports. They estimate bad-outcome cutoffs and worst-outcome averages.

Attack Heavy: tilts toward attacking players and attacking defenders with strong goal, assist, shot, and upside signals.

Very Risky Upside: intentionally searches for boom-or-bust players. It is useful for aggressive watchlists, not safe default picks.

Example: Price

If the official fantasy feed lists a player at 8.5 units, public pick cards and current builder views use that price. Older export payloads may keep estimated-price fields only so previous saves can still be inspected.

Example: Captain Score

If a player has expected return of 5.4, risk-adjusted return of 4.8, reliability of 82, risk of 30, and tail risk of 20, the captain score rewards the returns and reliability, then subtracts risk penalties.

Example: Reliability on the page

A reliability score of 85 means the player has strong support from the available information, looks available, and usually plays meaningful minutes. A score of 35 means the player may be useful but has more playing-time uncertainty.

Example: Per 90 on the page

If the card says Per 90: 6.2, it means the player's estimated performance is 6.2 fantasy-style points for a full 90 minutes before adjusting for confidence and typical minutes.

Example: Risk on the page

If Risk = 22, the player is relatively safer in the loaded dataset. If Risk is near the top of the loaded dataset, check availability, minutes, discipline, volatility, and bad-week concerns before relying on that player.

Example: Pick Strategy Score

If Pick Explorer is set to High-Floor Picks, the score favors low downside and useful projected points. If it changes to Upside Picks, the score shifts toward ceiling and attacking value.

Example: Best Overall style

Best Overall uses the 0 to 100 balanced score. A player with strong projected points, high reliability, and low risk should beat a player who is excellent in only one category.

Example: Projected Points style

If Player A has risk-adjusted expected points of 4.8 and Player B has 3.9, Projected Points style ranks Player A higher, even if Player B is cheaper.

Example: Reliable Pick style

If composite risk = 25 and expected points = 4, Reliable Pick score = (100 - 25) + 4 x 8 = 107. It rewards low risk first, then adds expected points.

Example: Upside Picks style

If a player has Per 90: 7.4, the Upside Picks view likes that player because he produces a lot when he is on the field. The tradeoff is that this style may select players with less certain minutes.

Example: Likely Minutes style

If Player A has reliability 88 and Player B has reliability 52, Likely Minutes style ranks Player A higher because the goal is to avoid players who might not start or might play very little.

Example: Avoid Bad Weeks (low tail-risk)

If bad-week risk is low and the advanced floor fields look positive, Bad-Week Floor likes the player even if another player has flashier upside.

Example: Risk-Adjusted Pick (Sharpe-style) on the page

If Risk-Adjusted Pick = 82, that player ranks around the 82nd percentile for reward above baseline per unit of weekly volatility in this database.

Example: Downside Protection Pick (Sortino-style) on the page

If Downside Protection Pick = 88, that player ranks around the 88th percentile for reward above baseline per unit of downside-only volatility. This is useful when you care more about bad surprises than all volatility.

Example: Projected

If expected return is 5.0 and the risk-adjusted return is 4.0, the page shows the risk-adjusted number as Projected because it is closer to the practical fantasy recommendation.

Example: VaR and CVaR

If the advanced bad-outcome cutoff is 2.0, the modeled bad week is still positive. If the worst-outcome average is -3.0, the player has more downside than the headline projection suggests.

Example: Very Risky Upside

A player can rank well here because the model sees high upside and volatility together. That makes the player interesting for an aggressive portfolio, but not automatically a safe starter.

About

An independent fantasy football helper built for the World Cup workflow.

Purpose

The Fantasy Economist is an independent fantasy football tool built to compare squad starters, captain options, and squad ideas in one place.

Current Status

The public tools currently focus on squad starters, captain selection, team building, switch checks, and score prediction.

Known Limits

Tournament player status, prices, positions, rules, and deadlines can still change.
Users should confirm boosters, deadlines, locks, and live status before acting.
Team Builder output should be checked against current fantasy rules before saving.

Squad Builder Starter

Captain Watchlist

Captain Switch Check

Bench Switch Check

Pick Explorer

Score Prediction

Team Builder

Choose Strategy

Lock or Avoid Players

Avoided Players

Build Squad

Squad Field

Bench

Review Legality and Checks

Rule Checks

Squad Risk Report

Squad Strategy Report

Strategy Comparison Check

Save or Export

Saved Squad JSON

World Cup Fixtures

Stats Notes

Projected Points

Risk Measures

Risk-Adjusted Scores

Team Builder Strategies

Captain And Bench Checks

Score Prediction

About

Purpose

Current Status

Known Limits